Phrase-worthy - Future tense

Published on Jan 6, 2012
By Geraint Wong

HUMAN beings have always yearned to know what lies in the future, so as to make plans, take precautions or seize opportunities.


But, alas, the human mind has not been endowed with prescience. Many people have therefore relied on the services of fortune-tellers, soothsayers, palmists and any who claim to be able to offer them a glimpse into the crystal ball - literally or figuratively.


This desire for foreknowledge has not abated. In fact, it has probably intensified now that people are so used to having information readily available at the click of a mouse.

These days, it is not clairvoyants but experts in various fields who supply information about the future. And a season such as this, as one year ends and another begins, tends to be a favourite time to dispense such information.


Two verbs are usually used for this purpose: 'forecast' and 'predict'.


'Forecast', of Middle English origin, means to estimate, guess or imagine something beforehand.


'Predict' derives from the Latin prae (before) and dicere (to say), so it translates literally as 'foretell'. But English is notorious for having very few true synonyms - between any two words that are very close in meaning, there's bound to be a slight difference in some respect, such as register (level of formality), connotation (underlying meaning) or collocation (usage with other words).


So while 'predict' and 'foretell' both mean to say something beforehand, the latter carries a connotation of certainty - one does not foretell an event unless one knows it is definitely going to happen. It is therefore unsurprising that this verb hardly ever appears in the news. Who, after all, can be sure about the future?


As for the two verbs that frequently crop up, 'predict' seems to imply greater conviction than 'forecast'.


Nevertheless, the words are often used interchangeably. So we regularly read about economists making both forecasts and predictions - whether they are about inflation, unemployment or the fate of the euro zone.


In fact, sometimes one verb may be used when the other is expected.


For example, while the weatherman traditionally gives forecasts, recently the following line appeared in a news report: 'The National Environment Agency predicts short showers in the afternoon for tomorrow and Thursday.' ('Cheer up, wet spell should ease today, says weatherman'; Dec 20)


And an Agence France-Presse story had this to say before the funeral of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il: 'Military marching bands would play funeral music while convoys of cars carrying flowers and senior officials would follow the coffin as hundreds of thousands looked on, the media forecast.' ('N. Korea plans huge send-off for late leader'; Dec 28)


But does it really matter which of the two verbs is used? Is an event likelier to happen just because some expert has predicted rather than simply forecast it? What factors should one consider in deciding how reliable a prediction or forecast is: the credibility of the writer, the source of the facts, the soundness of the analysis?


Best-selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable, claims that 'our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown and the very improbable'.


He adds: 'Certain professionals, while believing they are experts, are in fact not. Based on their empirical record, they do not know more about their subject matter than the general population, but they are much better at narrating - or, worse, at smoking you with complicated mathematical models.'


Audacious words there. But whether you agree with Mr Taleb or not, his statement provides much food for thought. Who, after all, had predicted Sept 11 or the stock market crash of 2008?


So should we, in the first place, be putting faith in any talk about the future?


Perhaps we are better off not counting our chickens before they are hatched, but being content to confine ourselves to what we know will happen (barring unforeseen circumstances, of course) - scheduled events such as the London Olympics, the United States presidential election and the opening of the Gardens By The Bay and River Safari, due to take place this year.


Where such occurrences are concerned, newspapers often use the phrasal verbs 'look ahead' and 'look out for' - the idea is to offer readers a preview rather than a prediction.


Yes, we still long to know how events will unfold, how matters will turn out, how the story will end. Yet, no matter how many predictions or forecasts we read, we still can't be sure, can we? So why not just take each day as it comes and expect the unexpected? Serendipity is always a welcome thing.


Happy 2012!


gerwong@sph.com.sg

Back Story:
Yes, we still long to know how events will unfold, how matters will turn out, how the story will end. Yet no matter how many predictions or forecasts we read, we still can't be sure, can we?